Ukraine is a recalcitrant mule thats been smashed on the nose with a plank of wood.

This colorful image is a paraphrase of a telling remark this week by US special envoy Keith Kellogg that sums up Washingtons view of Ukraines rocky road from thebust-up in the White Houseto new talks with US negotiators in Saudi Arabia.

Kellogg was discussing the US decision topause military suppliesto Ukraine and suspend intelligence cooperation. The aim, he said, was to compel Ukraine to join talks.

The best way I can describe it is sort of like hitting a mule with a two by four across the nose," Kellogg said. "You got their attention.

In other words, Ukraines biggest military backer has wielded a big stick to get its way, and it seems to have worked.

The push is to get them to engage in diplomatic activities.... The bottom line is that its a forcing function to get them to the table, Kellogg said atan eventin Washington on March 6.

U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv, February 20, 2025.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy heads to Riyadh on March 10 to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, followed by talks between Ukrainian and US delegations in Jeddah later in the week.

This view of the dynamic of the last few days, and where it now leaves Ukraine, was shared by one analyst who spoke toRFE/RLs Ukrainian Serviceon March 7.

They decided to put pressure on the weakest party, said Yevhen Mahda, a Ukrainian political scientist and director of Kyiv's Institute of World Policy.

The United States is not just turning the world order upside down. They are demonstrating, you know, a kind of caricature of policy, Mahda said.

The bitterness in these words echoes that heard in comments made by Ukraines ambassador to London, Valeriy Zaluzhniy, who this week accused the United States of destroying the rules-based international order.

Nevertheless, the presence of Ukrainian negotiators in Jeddah next week suggests that officials in Kyiv have accepted they have -- right now -- few options. Or, as US President Donald Trump put it, few cards.

Zelenskyystone of contritionin recent days also speaks to this.

Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable, he tweeted on March 4. I stand ready to work under President Trumps strong leadership.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US President Donald Trump and US Vice President JD Vance during the meeting in the Oval Office, February 28, 2025

Kellogg was sitting right behind US Vice President JD Vance and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio when the Oval Office meeting blew up. I had a ringside seat, he said, adding that Zelenskyy misread the room.

You dont try to challenge the president of the United States in the Oval Office.

While Kelloggs mule quote made some headlines, his other comments offer further insight into how Washington wants things to go from here.

A key first step will be to sign theminerals dealthat was supposed to be signed in Washington.

That is a big deal for us because President Trump is a transactional leader, and transactional starts with economics, he said.

Kellogg suggested -- in broad brush rather than in detail -- that this would be followed by Ukrainian officials setting out their term sheet of basic positions. He said Russia had already done this.

Do we have a term sheet from the Russians broadly? Do we have a term sheet with the Ukrainians? The answer is yes and no.

US-Russian talks in Saudi Arabia, February 18, 2025.

Mahda, the Ukrainian analyst, complained that Trump was not putting any kind of pressure at all on Russia, despite the fact that Ukraine is fighting a war for its independence.

On March 7, Trump took toTruth Socialto wave some kind of stick at Russia, too.

I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED, he wrote.

To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late.

This framing of the situation as two sides with equal status is clearly painful for Ukrainians. But Zelenskyys attempt to persuade Trump that his country, as the victim of aggression, has a moral case for support appears to have fallen on deaf ears.

Kellogg said that, instead of acting as Ukraines ally, Washington would play an objective interlocutor role.

The fear in Kyiv and many other European capitals is that Washington is not even going to do this. Rather, that it sees its own interests as aligned with Moscows. This perception has driven European efforts this week to bolster its own defense capabilities.

Zelenskyy appeared genuinely moved by European expressions of support and solidarity at meetings in London and Brussels in recent days. Alongside the now traditional mantra of sticking with Ukraine for as long as it takes, there were announcements that British and French intelligence would try to fill the gap left by the Americans.

But the reality is that this is second-best assistance. It can help Ukraine hold the line for a time, but it cannot quickly replace the kind of US backing Ukraine has had until now.

We have to understand that European equivalents of (US-made) Patriot missileswont come quickly, by waving a magic wand, said Mahda.